Every now and again I find it necessary to pause and consider the possibility that I’ve gone off the deep end and am thinking and behaving in ways not in accordance with reality. That I have misinterpreted events and am acting with unwarranted exuberance or paranoia. That I’ve gone nutsy fagin.
For instance, it seems to me that the wheels have come off this nation, that we’ve elected a man somewhere between towering dunderhead and enemy of the state, and that the common folk are increasingly agitated, trending toward civil unrest.
I have a theory that everything, all events, can be thought of as a set of trends, or forces, guiding events one way or another, counteracting or amplifying each other. Nothing “Is” so much as it is Becoming whatever comes next.
Further, I think that in any given situation, given a sufficient population, there will be at least one person who reacts in pretty much any way you can imagine. If there’s an explosion, some people will run away, some will call the cops, some will duck and cover, some will run toward the explosion to try to help. If there are only four people, odds are you won’t get one person doing each of those things. But if there are 50 people, every possibility will probably crop up.
So, people reacting to an event originate a trend. As circumstances evolve, they choose either to tend to act similarly or to alter their behavior. Some trends die out while others grow stronger and become more pronounced. Obviously, this affects what happens next, which provides another opportunity to reinforce or counter trends, and so on.
The practical upshot of all this is my belief that it is possible to spot which trends are becoming dominant, and project forward in time to predict what the results of those trends will be.
For instance, take current events. We have a single party in power which has proven itself in word and deed to be willing and able to pass whatever laws it wants and spend unthinkable amounts of money to promote its agenda without regard for the needs of the country they claim to govern. Meanwhile, we have a widely distributed, angry, and effectively disenfranchised segment of the populace which has never liked profligate government spending in the first place, and sees the current combination of excess and failure to perform the mundane tasks of governance as a direct attack on the American way of life. Third, the nosedive the stock market has taken ever since I put money into it is stressing everyone out.
Mitigating factors include the fact that Obama is quickly losing his luster due to his inability to fill any of the top-level positions because everyone he tries turns out to be a tax cheat, his diplomatic blunders, and his reticence to answer an unplanned question.
So, here’s my analysis. The right-wing nutjobs, like myself, will get madder and madder the longer nothing gets done in Washington besides spending money the country doesn’t have. The rulers will dismiss those people as they don’t fit into the agenda. I don’t see any trends pushing those two groups closer together. Therefore, the separation will worsen until violence breaks out. There will be rioting. Everyone will take the chance to dole out some rough justice to the people, races, genders, or furriners they feel done them wrong. The cops, and then the National Guard will be mobilized. The use of troops on US soil against US citizens will break the proverbial camel’s back, and then we’ll have civil war. Utilities might stay on, the closer to the power plants and the centers of government and military power the better. Nationwide food distribution will be over for the duration. The news will be unreliable at best, straight propaganda at worst. Because we’re screwed up, all the nations that rely on us for trade will be screwed up. This will leave our allies open to attack by their enemies, taking advantage of the disarray. Meanwhile, Mexico might decide it’s a good time to migrate north while no one’s watching.
The only way I see of avoiding this future is for the government to change its ways. The spending has to stop. The day-to-day business of running the country has to start getting done, which means putting people in all those sub-cabinet jobs who aren’t crooks. The President has to do his job, his whole job, not just the fun parts. Or, he has to get out of the way. If he can’t hack it, he needs to move aside for someone who can. If he keeps going the way he is, I honestly fear for his life. I fully expect someone to take a shot at him before Thanksgiving. (Please note, I’m not promoting this idea, nor do I intend to do anything of the sort myself. All I’m saying is that I think someone out there will make the attempt, and is probably already planning.)
Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe I’m overestimating the werewithal of the right-wing extremist or his ability to get his message to the middle. The thing is, I can’t tell. I think these things, but I am unable to judge whether I’m thinking rationally or based on fear. Maybe I’m severely misjudging where “the middle” actually is and worrying over nothing. So I have to stop and wonder if I’m being sensible.